Stainless Steel and Nickel Market Analysis

Stainless Steel Futures Prices

Stainless steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term. After the May Day holiday, prices initially rose and fell, bottoming out in mid-May. By May 20, prices had rebounded to their highest levels in April. The market sentiment remains positive and bullish.

Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices

On May 15, the highest, lowest, and closing prices of the main stainless steel futures contract 2409 were 14,215 yuan/ton, 14,005 yuan/ton, and 14,075 yuan/ton, respectively. By May 17, these prices had risen to 14,400 yuan/ton, 14,075 yuan/ton, and 14,370 yuan/ton, respectively. On May 20, the market remained hot, with prices reaching 14,610 yuan/ton, 14,365 yuan/ton, and 14,455 yuan/ton, respectively.

In the spot market, prices also rose. On May 17, the price of 304 stainless steel increased by 50 to 200 yuan/ton. In Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, the price of 304 cold-rolled plate rose by 50 to 100 yuan/ton, while the price of 304 hot-rolled plate rose by 150 yuan/ton. In Foshan, Guangdong Province, the price of 304 cold-rolled plate increased by 100 to 150 yuan/ton, and the price of 304 hot-rolled plate rose by 150 to 200 yuan/ton.

Nickel Prices

Since April, the price of Shanghai nickel has fluctuated rapidly and risen. In mid-May, it maintained a higher price level, and from May 16, it rose sharply again. On May 17, the highest, lowest, and closing prices of the main contract 2406 of Shanghai Nickel Futures were 154,690 yuan/ton, 145,950 yuan/ton, and 153,460 yuan/ton, respectively. By May 20, prices had increased further, with the highest price reaching 159,800 yuan/ton.

In the spot market, prices of upstream raw materials have risen sharply. On May 17, the spot nickel plate price of Changjiang Nonferrous Metals was 151,150 yuan/ton, up 4,250 yuan/ton. On May 20, the price of Changjiang Comprehensive No. 1 nickel ranged from 154,900 yuan/ton to 157,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 156,150 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan/ton.

Economic Data and Macro Policies

Several economic and policy factors have positively influenced the market. In the U.S., core producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) data have raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, Indonesia’s slower-than-expected nickel mine approval has caused market supply concerns, boosting nickel prices.

Domestically, the Ministry of Finance issued 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and the central bank announced policies to reduce down payments and interest rates. These measures, along with seasonal demand and supportive policies, have boosted market confidence, leading to higher prices for Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures.

Outlook for Stainless Steel Prices

Despite the positive economic data and policies, some factors may hinder the market’s continued rise. Stainless steel manufacturers have resumed production, but terminal demand remains weak. Rising inventories and high futures warehouse receipts suggest ongoing supply pressure. Additionally, although nickel supply remains high, downstream demand has not shown sustained recovery.

In summary, while favorable economic conditions and policies have strengthened market confidence, uncertainties in the Fed’s interest rate path, geopolitical risks, and supply pressures persist. It is predicted that stainless steel futures prices may continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term.